Premier League Predicted Table 2026/27
The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times: 69 games played, 311 to go.
Predicted final table
Ordered by average final points across the simulations. The strip shows how often each club finished in each position, first on the left.
| # | Club | Pts now | Predicted pts | Title | Top 4 | Top 5 | Relegated | Finishing positions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 18 | 71 | 45% | 90% | 93% | <1% | |
| 2 | Man City | 21 | 69 | 34% | 86% | 91% | <1% | |
| 3 | Brighton | 16 | 62 | 10% | 58% | 69% | <1% | |
| 4 | Liverpool | 12 | 58 | 3% | 34% | 45% | 1% | |
| 5 | Chelsea | 13 | 56 | 2% | 22% | 32% | 3% | |
| 6 | Brentford | 10 | 55 | 2% | 22% | 31% | 3% | |
| 7 | Leeds | 10 | 54 | 1% | 17% | 26% | 4% | |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 6 | 53 | 1% | 15% | 22% | 5% | |
| 9 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 53 | 1% | 14% | 20% | 6% | |
| 10 | Ipswich | 9 | 51 | <1% | 9% | 14% | 9% | |
| 11 | Man United | 7 | 51 | <1% | 9% | 15% | 9% | |
| 12 | Everton | 10 | 51 | <1% | 8% | 13% | 10% | |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 8 | 49 | <1% | 5% | 8% | 16% | |
| 14 | Fulham | 5 | 47 | <1% | 3% | 6% | 20% | |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 45 | <1% | 2% | 3% | 30% | |
| 16 | Newcastle | 8 | 45 | <1% | 2% | 4% | 30% | |
| 17 | Hull | 9 | 45 | <1% | 2% | 3% | 30% | |
| 18 | Sunderland | 4 | 45 | <1% | 2% | 3% | 34% | |
| 19 | Coventry | 6 | 44 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 40% | |
| 20 | Tottenham | 3 | 42 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 49% |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win the Premier League?
On the model's simulations, Arsenal are favourites, finishing first in 45% of the 10,000 seasons played out, with Manchester City next on 34%. It changes after every round of games.
Who will be relegated from the Premier League?
The three clubs most often in the bottom three are Tottenham Hotspur (49%), Coventry City (40%), Sunderland (34%).
How does the predicted table work?
Every remaining match (311 of them) is played out 10,000 times from each team's expected goals, starting from the real table. A team's figures come from its underlying numbers this season, pulled toward the league average while there are few games to go on, and blended with the bookmakers' figures for the matches they have priced. Ties are split on goal difference, then goals scored.
More Premier League
Forecasts come from the FPL Dave model: each team's expected goals from its underlying numbers this season (pulled toward the league average while the sample is small), blended with the bookmakers' expected goals when they have priced the match. They are estimates for information and entertainment, not betting advice. Results, fixtures, player data and injury flags are from the official Fantasy Premier League game. FPL Dave is independent and not affiliated with the Premier League.