Premier League Clean Sheet Odds - Gameweek 7
Clean sheet, win and goal probabilities for every Gameweek 7 fixture, derived from market odds. Odds snapshot: 16 October 2026 at 06:00 UK time.
GW7 clean sheet chances, ranked
All 20 teams, most likely clean sheet first. "Goals against" is the number of goals the market expects the team to concede.
| # | Team | Fixture | Clean sheet | Goals against | 24h change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | @ NFO (A) | 42% | 0.86 | Down 5pp |
| 2 | Man City | v IPS (H) | 42% | 0.87 | No change |
| 3 | Spurs | v COV (H) | 41% | 0.88 | No change |
| 4 | Fulham | v HUL (H) | 37% | 0.99 | No change |
| 5 | Brighton | v CRY (H) | 37% | 1.00 | No change |
| 6 | Bournemouth | v SUN (H) | 36% | 1.02 | No change |
| 7 | Chelsea | @ EVE (A) | 29% | 1.25 | No change |
| 8 | Leeds | v MUN (H) | 25% | 1.37 | No change |
| 9 | Newcastle | v AVL (H) | 25% | 1.38 | No change |
| 10 | Brentford | v LIV (H) | 25% | 1.38 | No change |
| 11 | Sunderland | @ BOU (A) | 22% | 1.49 | No change |
| 12 | Everton | v CHE (H) | 22% | 1.51 | No change |
| 13 | Man Utd | @ LEE (A) | 20% | 1.61 | No change |
| 14 | Aston Villa | @ NEW (A) | 20% | 1.61 | No change |
| 15 | Liverpool | @ BRE (A) | 20% | 1.62 | No change |
| 16 | Nott'm Forest | v ARS (H) | 20% | 1.63 | Up 2pp |
| 17 | Hull City | @ FUL (A) | 17% | 1.75 | No change |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | @ BHA (A) | 13% | 2.00 | No change |
| 19 | Coventry City | @ TOT (A) | 12% | 2.12 | No change |
| 20 | Ipswich Town | @ MCI (A) | 7% | 2.62 | No change |
GW7 match odds by fixture
Expected goals for each side, then the chance of a home win, draw and away win. BTTS is both teams to score.
| Kickoff (UK) | Fixture | Expected goals | Home win | Draw | Away win | BTTS | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 | Everton v Chelsea | 1.25 - 1.51 | 32% | 25% | 43% | 56% | 52% |
| Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | Brentford v Liverpool | 1.62 - 1.38 | 43% | 24% | 33% | 60% | 58% |
| Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | Fulham v Hull City | 1.75 - 0.99 | 55% | 24% | 21% | 52% | 52% |
| Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | Man City v Ipswich Town | 2.62 - 0.87 | 75% | 15% | 10% | 54% | 68% |
| Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 | Newcastle v Aston Villa | 1.61 - 1.38 | 43% | 24% | 33% | 60% | 57% |
| Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 1.49 - 1.02 | 48% | 26% | 26% | 50% | 46% |
| Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | Leeds v Man Utd | 1.61 - 1.37 | 43% | 24% | 33% | 60% | 57% |
| Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | Brighton v Crystal Palace | 2.00 - 1.00 | 61% | 21% | 18% | 55% | 58% |
| Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 | Nott'm Forest v Arsenal | 0.86 - 1.63 | 20% | 25% | 56% | 47% | 46% |
| Mon 19 Oct, 20:00 | Spurs v Coventry City | 2.12 - 0.88 | 66% | 20% | 15% | 51% | 58% |
What this means for your FPL team
- Best defences this week: Arsenal (42%), Man City (42%), Spurs (41%).
- Best attack this week: Man City, expected to score 2.62 goals at home to Ipswich Town.
- Tightest fixture: Nott'm Forest v Arsenal, with 2.50 expected goals in total.
- Most open fixture: Man City v Ipswich Town, with 3.49 expected goals in total.
How the numbers are calculated
Every fixture has two market lines: total goals and the Asian handicap. From those two lines we solve for the goals each team is expected to score. A clean sheet chance is the probability that the opponent scores zero under a Poisson model with that figure. The same expected goals also power the projected points on FPL Dave, so captain picks and transfer suggestions use the same view of each fixture shown here. Read the full method on the odds-blended XI page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which team is most likely to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 7?
Arsenal (42%, away at Nott'm Forest), Man City (42%, at home to Ipswich Town), Spurs (41%, at home to Coventry City) have the highest clean sheet chances in Gameweek 7, based on market odds as of 16 October 2026 at 06:00 UK time.
Which team is expected to score the most goals in Gameweek 7?
Man City have the highest expected goals in Gameweek 7 at 2.62, at home to Ipswich Town. The most open fixture is Man City v Ipswich Town, with 3.49 expected goals in total.
How are these clean sheet odds calculated?
Each fixture has two market lines: total goals (over/under) and the Asian handicap. Together they imply how many goals each team is expected to score. A team's clean sheet chance is the probability that its opponent scores zero under a Poisson model with that expected-goals figure. Win, draw, both-teams-to-score and over 2.5 chances come from the same two numbers.
Are these the same as the clean sheet odds a betting site shows?
They are close but not identical. These are probabilities derived from the totals and handicap markets with the margin removed, so the two sides of a market add up to 100%. A betting site's own clean sheet price includes its margin and will imply a slightly higher chance.
How often is this page updated?
The odds feed refreshes every 6 hours, and more often close to the FPL deadline and to each kickoff. This page is rebuilt from the latest snapshot every day. The live odds page in the app always shows the newest snapshot.
How should FPL managers use clean sheet odds?
Use them to choose between defenders and goalkeepers for your starting XI and bench order, and to judge transfer targets. A defender earns 4 points for a clean sheet, so a 45% chance is worth far more than a 20% one. Expected goals in the fixture table show which attacks are best placed that week.
Odds data is for information only and is not betting advice. 18+ · BeGambleAware · @FPLDaveHQ