FPL Projected Points (xPts) - GW1 Table
Expected points for every player, blending form, fixtures and bookmaker odds. GW1 2026/27.
What goes into the projection
- Poisson goal model - per-fixture expected goals for and against, converted to clean sheet and goal-involvement probabilities
- Recency-weighted form - recent gameweeks count more than season-long averages
- Home/away split - separate attack and defence factors for home vs away fixtures
- Bookmaker odds blend - Pinnacle totals + Asian handicap markets feed 65% of the defensive-side projection, catching team news and lineup leaks pure stats miss
- Penalty, card and saves sub-models - separate expected-value calculations layered on top of the base goal model
- DGW/BGW aware - automatically sums projections across multiple fixtures in a Double Gameweek
Top Goalkeepers - GW1 snapshot
| Player | Team | Price | Form | Next fixture | Snapshot xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raya | ARS | £6.0m | 0.0 | vs COV 2 | 2.4 |
Top Defenders - GW1 snapshot
Top Midfielders - GW1 snapshot
| Player | Team | Price | Form | Next fixture | Snapshot xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Fernandes | MUN | £12.0m | 0.0 | @ HUL 2 | 3.6 |
| Bruno G. | ARS | £7.0m | 0.0 | vs COV 2 | 2.9 |
| Saka | ARS | £9.5m | 0.0 | vs COV 2 | 2.8 |
| Rice | ARS | £7.5m | 0.0 | vs COV 2 | 2.8 |
| Gibbs-White | NFO | £8.0m | 0.0 | vs LEE 2 | 2.8 |
Top Forwards - GW1 snapshot
| Player | Team | Price | Form | Next fixture | Snapshot xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | MCI | £15.5m | 0.0 | vs BOU 3 | 3.4 |
| João Pedro | CHE | £7.5m | 0.0 | @ FUL 3 | 2.5 |
| Thiago | BRE | £8.0m | 0.0 | vs TOT 3 | 2.4 |
This table is a fast snapshot based on form and next-fixture difficulty. The live tool runs the full Poisson + odds-blended engine across your chosen gameweek horizon.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are FPL projected points (xPts)?
Projected points, also called expected points or xPts, forecast how many Fantasy Premier League points a player is likely to score in an upcoming gameweek. They combine expected goals (xG), expected assists (xA), clean sheet probability, minutes likelihood and bonus-point patterns, converted into FPL's scoring rules.
How does FPL Dave calculate xPts?
A Poisson-based model with recency weighting (recent form counts more than season-long averages), home/away split factors, and separate sub-models for penalties, cards and goalkeeper saves. Since 2026, bookmaker odds (Pinnacle totals + Asian handicap markets) are blended in at 65% market weight for the defensive side - clean sheet probability and goals-conceded penalties - while attacking xG share stays stats-driven. See the full methodology on the Bookies XI page.
Who has the highest projected points for GW1?
Based on current form and fixture difficulty, B.Fernandes, Gabriel, Haaland lead the snapshot ranking below. The live tool's full engine (with the odds blend and Poisson goal model) may rank players slightly differently - this table is a fast approximation, not the final word.
Where do I see the full xPts engine, not just this snapshot?
The Fixtures > Player xPts tab has the complete Poisson-based projection for every player, filterable by position and price, plus a multi-gameweek horizon view. It also silently powers Captain Pick, the Transfer Recommender, and the AI Coach - so any transfer suggestion you see elsewhere on the site is already using this engine.
Is projected points the same as FPL's own "xP" stat?
No. FPL's official app has started publishing its own basic xP figure, but FPL Dave's model is independently built and includes signals FPL's own stat doesn't: recency-weighted form, a bookmaker-odds blend, and separate handling for DGW/BGW fixture counts.
Are projected points free to view?
Yes - the Player xPts tab and this snapshot page are both completely free, no sign-in required.