FPL Projected Points (xPts) - GW5 Table
Expected points for every player, blending form, fixtures and bookmaker odds. GW5 2026/27.
What goes into the projection
- Poisson goal model - per-fixture expected goals for and against, converted to clean sheet and goal-involvement probabilities
- Recency-weighted form - recent gameweeks count more than season-long averages
- Home/away split - separate attack and defence factors for home vs away fixtures
- Bookmaker odds blend - Pinnacle totals + Asian handicap markets feed 65% of the defensive-side projection, catching team news and lineup leaks pure stats miss
- Penalty, card and saves sub-models - separate expected-value calculations layered on top of the base goal model
- DGW/BGW aware - automatically sums projections across multiple fixtures in a Double Gameweek
Top Goalkeepers - GW5 snapshot
Top Defenders - GW5 snapshot
Top Midfielders - GW5 snapshot
Top Forwards - GW5 snapshot
This table is a fast snapshot based on form and next-fixture difficulty. The live tool runs the full Poisson + odds-blended engine across your chosen gameweek horizon.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are FPL projected points (xPts)?
Projected points, also called expected points or xPts, forecast how many Fantasy Premier League points a player is likely to score in an upcoming gameweek. They combine expected goals (xG), expected assists (xA), clean sheet probability, minutes likelihood and bonus-point patterns, converted into FPL's scoring rules.
How does FPL Dave calculate xPts?
A Poisson-based model with recency weighting (recent form counts more than season-long averages), home/away split factors, and separate sub-models for penalties, cards and goalkeeper saves. Bookmaker odds (Pinnacle totals + Asian handicap markets) feed the defensive side - clean sheet probability and goals-conceded penalties - at full market weight for any fixture with odds coverage, falling back to the pure stats model beyond that. Attacking xG share stays stats-driven. See the full methodology on the Bookies XI page.
Is this an FPL points predictor?
Yes - "projected points," "expected points" and "points predictor" all describe the same thing: a forecast of how many FPL points a player is likely to score, built from underlying data (xG, xA, clean sheet odds, minutes risk) rather than a gut-feel guess. This page and the live Expected Points tab are FPL Dave's points predictor.
Who has the highest projected points for GW5?
Based on current form and fixture difficulty, Groß, Tarkowski, Bogle lead the snapshot ranking below. The live tool's full engine (with the odds blend and Poisson goal model) may rank players slightly differently - this table is a fast approximation, not the final word.
Where do I see the full xPts engine, not just this snapshot?
The Players > Expected Points tab has the complete Poisson-based projection for every player, filterable by position and price, plus a multi-gameweek horizon view. It also silently powers Captain Pick, the Transfer Recommender, and the AI Coach - so any transfer suggestion you see elsewhere on the site is already using this engine.
Is projected points the same as FPL's own "xP" stat?
No. FPL's official app has started publishing its own basic xP figure, but FPL Dave's model is independently built and includes signals FPL's own stat doesn't: recency-weighted form, a bookmaker-odds blend, and separate handling for DGW/BGW fixture counts.
Are projected points free to view?
Yes - the Expected Points tab and this snapshot page are both completely free, no sign-in required.