About FPL Dave
Free Fantasy Premier League tools and a projection model that grades itself in public.
Who is behind it
FPL Dave is run by Dave, a Fantasy Premier League manager. He built his own projection model, then the site around it, then the FPL Dave YouTube channel. He plays the game every season like everyone else: his own team, transfers and captain go up each gameweek (gameweek guides), and so does the record of every call he makes.
Follow along on YouTube and X (@FPLDaveHQ).
The record: every call, graded in public
Most FPL tips are forgotten by the next deadline. Here, the model's projected points for every player are locked in a file before each deadline, and so is the forecast for every Premier League match. After the gameweek, each one is graded against what actually happened, next to simple baselines. The files are never changed afterwards.
The full projection record → Match predictions and their record →
How the model works
- Expected goals and assists for every player, weighted toward recent matches, with penalties counted separately.
- Team strength for every fixture: how many chances each side creates and allows, home and away, pulled toward the league average while the season is young.
- Bookmakers' prices blended in where they exist, because the betting market knows about injuries and line-ups before any stats do.
- Minutes: how likely each player is to start, from his recent minutes and FPL's availability flags.
- The same model powers projected points, the best team, the predicted table and the match predictions.
What's on the site
The app (team planner, live points, player stats, the Creator Hub for shareable graphics) and free pages for every player, club and gameweek, plus Premier League tables, fixtures and predictions. Bloggers and creators can embed the weekly picks on their own sites: free FPL widgets.