Aston Villa vs Man City Prediction
Premier League · Gameweek 8 · Saturday 24 October · 12:30 UK
Updated twice a day until the gameweek deadline, then locked.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Man City?
Our prediction: Man City 2-1
Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.27, Man City 1.83.
Aston Villa host Manchester City on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 12:30 UK time. The model makes Man City favourites at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Aston Villa are 12th on 8 points and have won 2 of their last 5; Man City are 1st on 21, with 5 wins in their last 5. On the underlying numbers, Aston Villa create 1.2 expected goals a game and allow 1.6; Man City create 2.2 and allow 1.4. Man City's goal difference is 7 better than their chances suggest, which usually evens out. Ruled out on FPL's flags: Semenyo.
Most likely scores
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 1-1 Man City | 10.5% |
| Aston Villa 1-2 Man City | 9.6% |
| Aston Villa 0-1 Man City | 8.3% |
| Aston Villa 0-2 Man City | 7.6% |
| Aston Villa 2-1 Man City | 6.6% |
| Aston Villa 2-2 Man City | 6.1% |
Form and season so far
| Aston Villa | Man City | |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 1st |
| Points (games) | 8 (7) | 21 (7) |
| Goals for / against | 7 / 11 | 19 / 7 |
| xG for / against a game | 1.21 / 1.61 | 2.20 / 1.44 |
| Last five | DLWDW | WWWWW |
Team news
From the official FPL game's injury and availability flags. Press conferences may change them.
- Manzambi: Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
- George Hemmings: Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
Players to watch
The model's highest projected Fantasy Premier League scorers in this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
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Forecasts come from the FPL Dave model: each team's expected goals from its underlying numbers this season (pulled toward the league average while the sample is small), blended with the bookmakers' expected goals when they have priced the match. They are estimates for information and entertainment, not betting advice. Results, fixtures, player data and injury flags are from the official Fantasy Premier League game. FPL Dave is independent and not affiliated with the Premier League.