Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Prediction
Premier League · Gameweek 12 · Friday 27 November · 20:00 UK
Updated twice a day until the gameweek deadline, then locked.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Our prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-0
Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.41, Chelsea 1.11 (team stats only: the bookmakers had not priced this match yet).
Nottingham Forest host Chelsea on Friday 27 November, kick-off 20:00 UK time. The model makes Nottingham Forest favourites at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Nottingham Forest are 16th on 9 points and have won 1 of their last 5; Chelsea are 5th on 16, with 3 wins in their last 5. On the underlying numbers, Nottingham Forest create 1.6 expected goals a game and allow 1.1; Chelsea create 1.4 and allow 1.5. Nottingham Forest's goal difference is 9 worse than their chances suggest, which usually evens out. Ruled out on FPL's flags: João Pedro, Lacroix, James, Hato.
Most likely scores
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest 1-1 Chelsea | 12.6% |
| Nottingham Forest 1-0 Chelsea | 11.3% |
| Nottingham Forest 0-1 Chelsea | 9.0% |
| Nottingham Forest 2-1 Chelsea | 8.9% |
| Nottingham Forest 0-0 Chelsea | 8.1% |
| Nottingham Forest 2-0 Chelsea | 8.0% |
Form and season so far
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 5th |
| Points (games) | 9 (10) | 16 (10) |
| Goals for / against | 9 / 13 | 19 / 16 |
| xG for / against a game | 1.60 / 1.10 | 1.41 / 1.50 |
| Last five | LLDLW | WWLWL |
Team news
From the official FPL game's injury and availability flags. Press conferences may change them.
No flags in FPL.
- João Pedro: Thigh injury - Unknown return date
- Lacroix: Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
- James: Knee injury - Unknown return date
- Martinez: Head injury - 75% chance of playing
- Hato: Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
- Acheampong: Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Players to watch
The model's highest projected Fantasy Premier League scorers in this match.
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On penalties: Gibbs-White
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On penalties: Palmer
Frequently Asked Questions
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Forecasts come from the FPL Dave model: each team's expected goals from its underlying numbers this season (pulled toward the league average while the sample is small), blended with the bookmakers' expected goals when they have priced the match. They are estimates for information and entertainment, not betting advice. Results, fixtures, player data and injury flags are from the official Fantasy Premier League game. FPL Dave is independent and not affiliated with the Premier League.