Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction
Premier League · Gameweek 11 · Saturday 21 November · 17:30 UK
Updated twice a day until the gameweek deadline, then locked.
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our prediction: Arsenal 2-1
Expected goals: Newcastle 1.23, Arsenal 1.73 (team stats only: the bookmakers had not priced this match yet).
Newcastle United host Arsenal on Saturday 21 November, kick-off 17:30 UK time. The model makes Arsenal favourites at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Newcastle are 12th on 11 points and have won 2 of their last 5; Arsenal are 1st on 24, with 4 wins in their last 5. On the underlying numbers, Newcastle create 1.1 expected goals a game and allow 1.7; Arsenal create 1.7 and allow 0.8. Ruled out on FPL's flags: Saka.
Most likely scores
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Newcastle 1-1 Arsenal | 11.0% |
| Newcastle 1-2 Arsenal | 9.5% |
| Newcastle 0-1 Arsenal | 9.0% |
| Newcastle 0-2 Arsenal | 7.8% |
| Newcastle 2-1 Arsenal | 6.8% |
| Newcastle 1-0 Arsenal | 6.4% |
Form and season so far
| Newcastle | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 1st |
| Points (games) | 11 (8) | 24 (9) |
| Goals for / against | 12 / 14 | 14 / 5 |
| xG for / against a game | 1.14 / 1.72 | 1.65 / 0.81 |
| Last five | LWLLW | LWWWW |
Team news
From the official FPL game's injury and availability flags. Press conferences may change them.
No flags in FPL.
- Saka: Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Players to watch
The model's highest projected Fantasy Premier League scorers in this match.
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On penalties: Wissa
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On penalties: Saka
Frequently Asked Questions
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Forecasts come from the FPL Dave model: each team's expected goals from its underlying numbers this season (pulled toward the league average while the sample is small), blended with the bookmakers' expected goals when they have priced the match. They are estimates for information and entertainment, not betting advice. Results, fixtures, player data and injury flags are from the official Fantasy Premier League game. FPL Dave is independent and not affiliated with the Premier League.