Arsenal vs Man City Prediction
Premier League · Gameweek 12 · Sunday 29 November · 16:30 UK
Updated twice a day until the gameweek deadline, then locked.
Who will win Arsenal vs Man City?
Our prediction: Arsenal 1-0
Expected goals: Arsenal 1.57, Man City 1.25 (team stats only: the bookmakers had not priced this match yet).
Arsenal host Manchester City on Sunday 29 November, kick-off 16:30 UK time. The model makes Arsenal favourites at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Arsenal are 1st on 27 points and have won 5 of their last 5; Man City are 3rd on 21, with 2 wins in their last 5. On the underlying numbers, Arsenal create 1.6 expected goals a game and allow 0.8; Man City create 2.0 and allow 1.3. Ruled out on FPL's flags: Saka, Semenyo.
Most likely scores
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Arsenal 1-1 Man City | 11.7% |
| Arsenal 1-0 Man City | 9.4% |
| Arsenal 2-1 Man City | 9.2% |
| Arsenal 0-1 Man City | 7.4% |
| Arsenal 2-0 Man City | 7.4% |
| Arsenal 1-2 Man City | 7.3% |
Form and season so far
| Arsenal | Man City | |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Points (games) | 27 (10) | 21 (10) |
| Goals for / against | 15 / 5 | 21 / 13 |
| xG for / against a game | 1.62 / 0.76 | 2.04 / 1.27 |
| Last five | WWWWW | WWLLL |
Team news
From the official FPL game's injury and availability flags. Press conferences may change them.
Players to watch
The model's highest projected Fantasy Premier League scorers in this match.
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On penalties: Saka
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On penalties: Haaland
Frequently Asked Questions
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Forecasts come from the FPL Dave model: each team's expected goals from its underlying numbers this season (pulled toward the league average while the sample is small), blended with the bookmakers' expected goals when they have priced the match. They are estimates for information and entertainment, not betting advice. Results, fixtures, player data and injury flags are from the official Fantasy Premier League game. FPL Dave is independent and not affiliated with the Premier League.