My FPL Gameweek 10 Team Selection

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FPL GW10 Team Selection | Haaland captain? | Fantasy Premier League 26/27

My starting eleven

Bench, in order

Transfers

• Gibbs-White out, Tavernier in: Forest can’t score. The forwards around him are poor finishers, and he creates chances for others instead of shooting himself. At nearly 8m there are better, cheaper options.
• Muñoz out, Silva in: Silva is in a “sweet spot” of a good defence plus high defensive contributions, roughly 10 per 90 and hitting the threshold about two-thirds of the time. Bournemouth have gone six games without conceding.

Intro

If you own Calvert-Lewin, you're with about one in five managers, and I've put him on my bench for Gameweek ten, while the armband stays with Haaland after a two-point week. Stick around and you'll find out which midfielder I'm selling, which cheap defender I've brought in, and the numbers behind sticking with Haaland as captain.

Goalkeeper and defence

In goal, it's Kinsky. Tottenham are away at Leeds United, and Leeds have only scored nine in nine games, which puts them in the bottom half for goals. That's not an attack I'm scared of. He's averaging five points a game and picked up six last week. My model has him on three point six expected points, and the run after this, with Ipswich and Fulham at home, stays kind.

Silva is the new man at the back. Bournemouth go away to Ipswich Town, and Ipswich have conceded eighteen in nine and kept no clean sheets, but it's the other end I care about. I think Silva is in a sweet spot: a good defence plus high defensive contributions, roughly ten per ninety, hitting the threshold about two thirds of the time. Bournemouth have gone six games without conceding. He's on four point six expected points and almost nobody owns him, about three percent of managers.

Alongside him is Van Hecke, the hero of last week with fifteen points. Like Kinsky, he's away at Leeds, and their attack has been fairly blunt. He's got two goals from defence already, which gives him a second route to points. My model has him on four point one expected points, and with Ipswich and Fulham at home to come, I'm happy holding him.

Konsa is next. Arsenal are at home to Hull City, and Hull have scored eleven in nine, right in the middle of the pack, so a clean sheet is very possible. He's averaging over nine points a game in recent form, scoring ten last week. That's four point seven expected points on my numbers. It does get harder after this, with Newcastle away and Manchester City at home.

Calafiori keeps his place, same Hull fixture at home. He offers more going forward than Konsa, with a goal and two assists, which is why the model nudges him ahead on four point eight expected points. About half of managers own him. The fixtures toughen from here, so he's one I'll be watching, but not this week.

Midfield

Into midfield, and Dewsbury-Hall starts. Everton are at home to Coventry City, and Coventry have conceded sixteen in nine with just one clean sheet, among the worst defences in the league. He's been returning most weeks, with two goals and an assist. The model gives him four expected points. After this, Brentford away and Liverpool at home are tough, so this is a week to have him on the pitch. Only about six percent of managers own him.

Palmer sits next to him. Chelsea go to Sunderland, and Sunderland have let in seventeen in nine and scored only seven, second fewest in the league. He takes the penalties too. He owes me a return, but eight points last week was a start. My model has him on four point one expected points, and Leeds, Forest and Palace follow.

Rogers is the other Chelsea man, same trip to Sunderland and that same leaky defence. He's got five goals, more than Palmer, and he scored nine last week. The model is cooler on him at three point six expected points. Over half of managers have him, so he won't gain me much, but I can't afford to be without him.

Gross is the one I'm least sure of. Brighton are at home to Brentford, and Brentford have only conceded nine, fourth fewest in the league, so this isn't an easy game. He does take the penalties, and nine goal involvements tells you the ceiling. But he's been quiet, two points last week. He's on three point eight expected points, and with nearly half of managers owning him, I'm keeping him for now.

Attack

Up front, Jackson. Villa are away at Manchester United, and United have conceded fifteen and haven't kept a single clean sheet all season. That's the stat I like. He's averaging over eight points a game, with five goals. That's four point nine expected points, and Sunderland, Ipswich and Palace are all in his next five.

And then Haaland. City are away at Nottingham Forest, who've conceded twelve, about average, but have kept just one clean sheet. He's on penalties, he's got nine goals already, and sixty eight points. Two points last week stung, but about four in five managers own him, so benching or selling him is a huge risk.

Captain

But is a two-pointer enough to take the armband off Haaland? I don't think so. Look at the table. He's top of my model on five point seven expected points, a clear point ahead of Jackson, and twenty eight over the next five. The odds give City nearly two goals at Forest, the highest of anyone here. Jackson's form is better, and he's the tempting differential, but every one of the top ten thousand owned Haaland last week, so captaining someone else is a big gamble against the field. Palmer is my vice, so he gets the armband if Haaland doesn't play.

Bench

On the bench, Dubravka is the backup keeper. First off is Calvert-Lewin, at home to Tottenham. Second is Gibbs-White, who has Manchester City at home, though he's on his way out, more on that shortly. Third is Davis, at home to Bournemouth.

Last week

A quick look back now. Gameweek nine gave me sixty points, thirteen above the average, so a decent week. Van Hecke led the way with fifteen, and Rogers and Jackson chipped in nine each. The sore spot was the captain: Haaland got two, so four after doubling.

Where I stand

Where I stand: five hundred and ninety five points, ranked around six hundred and forty seven thousand, with one point eight million in the bank. I've already made one transfer this week. The Free Hit is the only chip I have left, and it has to be played by Gameweek nineteen. My model has this eleven on about fifty four points, captain doubled.

Transfer

So, Gibbs-White out, Tavernier in. Forest can't score, just six goals in nine, the fewest in the league. The forwards around him are poor finishers, and he creates chances for others instead of shooting himself. At nearly eight million there are better, cheaper options. Tavernier is one, at six point six. He's got five goals, Bournemouth go to Ipswich, who have conceded eighteen, and the model has him on four point seven expected points against three point five for Gibbs-White.

Wildcard draft

My Wildcard's already gone, but if I had it this week, this is the team. It's built for the next five gameweeks, with the money up front and a cheap bench. The ones I like most are Haaland, Gabriel and Hill, and Haaland would still wear the armband.

Free Hit draft

And this is what a Free Hit team would look like, built for this gameweek alone, with my own team back the week after. The picks I like most are Haaland, Gabriel and Silva, so I've already got two of them. Haaland would be captain.

Outro

So that's Haaland on the armband, Silva in, and Tavernier replacing Gibbs-White. Who's getting your armband, Haaland or Palmer? I post my model's picks every gameweek and grade every call in public. Since Gameweek 8, 4 of my 5 calls have landed.

More for Gameweek 10

• GW10 captain picks
• GW10 transfer tips
• GW10 differentials
• The full Gameweek 10 guide
• Plan your own team

The team, the captain, the transfers and the reasons are my own decisions. Fixtures, prices and ownership are FPL's; projected points (xPts) come from the FPL Dave engine and are estimates, not guarantees.